SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Terry Turner v Jacob Minett (Thu 15 Mar 2018)

Match won by Jacob Minett. Result: 4-11,11-9,11-8,8-11,6-11.

Starting level for Terry Turner: 4,618, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Jacob Minett: 4,847, level confidence: 20%.
Jacob Minett to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Terry Turner.

Jacob Minett won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jacob Minett played 14% better than Terry Turner in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jacob Minett actually played at a level of 5,046 and Terry Turner at a level of 4,436. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jacob Minett changes to +4% and Terry Turner changes to -1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jacob Minett becomes +2.1% and for Terry Turner becomes -0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Jacob Minett is +1.5% and for Terry Turner is -0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jacob Minett: 45%, Terry Turner: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jacob Minett: 43%, Terry Turner: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Terry Turner: 4,580, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Jacob Minett: 4,915, level confidence: 43%.