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Alexis Cole v Kieran Hillman (Thu 15 Mar 2018)

Match won by Alexis Cole. Result: 8-11,11-5,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for Alexis Cole: 8,524, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Kieran Hillman: 5,583, level confidence: 62%.
Alexis Cole to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Kieran Hillman.

Alexis Cole won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alexis Cole played 27% better than Kieran Hillman in this match.

As Alexis Cole has played below his allowed range at 7,333, his level reduction is 3.1% before damping. On the assumption that Alexis Cole would normally have been playing at level 8,082 (based on typical behaviour), Kieran Hillman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 5.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alexis Cole changes to -2.1% and Kieran Hillman changes to +5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alexis Cole becomes -1.1% and for Kieran Hillman becomes +2.4%.

Given Alexis Cole's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Given Kieran Hillman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Alexis Cole is -0.7% and for Kieran Hillman is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alexis Cole: 87%, Kieran Hillman: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alexis Cole: 79%, Kieran Hillman: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alexis Cole: 8,452, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Kieran Hillman: 5,671, level confidence: 72%.