Luke Bishop v David Haley (Thu 15 Mar 2018)
Match won by David Haley. Result: 10-12,11-6,5-11,12-14.
Starting level for
Luke Bishop:
10,982, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
David Haley:
12,867, level confidence: 56%.
David Haley to win as he is currently playing
17% better than Luke Bishop.
David Haley won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Haley played
21% better than Luke Bishop in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Haley actually played at a level of
13,081 and Luke Bishop at a level of
10,802. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Haley changes to +1.5% and Luke Bishop changes to -1.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Haley becomes +0.7% and for Luke Bishop becomes -0.6%.
Given David Haley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.
Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for David Haley is +0.4% and for Luke Bishop is -0.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Haley: 75%, Luke Bishop: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Haley: 74%, Luke Bishop: 83%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Luke Bishop:
10,925, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for David Haley:
12,904, level confidence: 74%.