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Raphael Kandra v Adrain Waller (Wed 14 Mar 2018)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 4-11,11-8,12-10,6-11,11-5.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 35,853, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adrain Waller: 33,096, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Adrain Waller.

Raphael Kandra won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 7% better than Adrain Waller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of 35,623 and Adrain Waller at a level of 33,310. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to -0.6% and Adrain Waller changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes -0.2% and for Adrain Waller becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grasshopper Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 89%, Adrain Waller: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 88%, Adrain Waller: 87%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 35,766, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Adrain Waller: 33,281, level confidence: 87%.