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Liam Eason v Steven Colarusso (Thu 15 Mar 2018)

Match won by Liam Eason. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-6.

Starting level for Liam Eason: 9,404, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Steven Colarusso: 5,568, level confidence: 57%.
Liam Eason to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Steven Colarusso.

Liam Eason won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Eason played 154% better than Steven Colarusso in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Liam Eason actually played at a level of 11,529 and Steven Colarusso at a level of 4,542. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Liam Eason changes to +15% and Steven Colarusso changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Liam Eason becomes +4.3% and for Steven Colarusso becomes -5.5%.

Given Liam Eason's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.

Given Steven Colarusso's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Liam Eason is +2.8% and for Steven Colarusso is -4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Eason: 81%, Steven Colarusso: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Eason: 66%, Steven Colarusso: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Liam Eason: 9,652, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Steven Colarusso: 5,347, level confidence: 62%.