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Matthew Crowley v Chris Hill (Thu 15 Mar 2018)

Match won by Matthew Crowley. Result: 10-12,11-3,11-1,11-13,12-10.

Starting level for Matthew Crowley: 5,881, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Hill: 5,386, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Matthew Crowley to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Chris Hill.

Matthew Crowley won 60% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Crowley played 18% better than Chris Hill in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Crowley actually played at a level of 6,107 and Chris Hill at a level of 5,186. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Crowley changes to +3.6% and Chris Hill changes to -3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Crowley becomes +1.9% and for Chris Hill becomes -1.9%.

Given Matthew Crowley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.7% has been applied to his level change.

Given Chris Hill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.7% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Matthew Crowley is +1.3% and for Chris Hill is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Crowley: 91%, Chris Hill: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Crowley: 88%, Chris Hill: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Crowley: 5,951, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Chris Hill: 5,302, level confidence: 87%.