Noel Werner v Will Salter (Thu 15 Mar 2018)
Match won by Will Salter. Result: 8-15,9-15,6-15.
Starting level for
Noel Werner:
932, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Will Salter:
2,220, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Will Salter to win as he is currently playing
138% better than Noel Werner.
Will Salter won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will Salter played
96% better than Noel Werner in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Will Salter was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,451 and 2,220 without affecting his level.
In this case, Will Salter played at level 1,831 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Will Salter would normally have been playing at level 1,838 (based on typical behaviour), Noel Werner played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will Salter changes to 0% and Noel Werner changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will Salter becomes 0% and for Noel Werner becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Gwent Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Will Salter is 0% and for Noel Werner is 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will Salter: 86%, Noel Werner: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will Salter: 78%, Noel Werner: 71%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Noel Werner:
932, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Will Salter:
2,217, level confidence: 78%.