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Abhay Singh v Chris Simpson (Wed 14 Mar 2018)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 5-11,7-11,11-5,9-11.

Starting level for Abhay Singh: 14,561, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 35,923, level confidence: 63%.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 147% better than Abhay Singh.

Chris Simpson won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 23% better than Abhay Singh in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Simpson was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 22,829 and 35,923 without affecting his level.

As Chris Simpson has played below his allowed range at 20,215, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 29,367 (based on typical behaviour), Abhay Singh played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 28%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to -8% and Abhay Singh changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes -2.1% and for Abhay Singh becomes +3.9%.

Given Chris Simpson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 63% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Abhay Singh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'York & District Yorkshire Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Chris Simpson is -1% and for Abhay Singh is +2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 79%, Abhay Singh: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 56%, Abhay Singh: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abhay Singh: 14,875, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 35,524, level confidence: 56%.