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Elliott Morris Devred v Joel Preece (Thu 15 Mar 2018)

Match won by Elliott Morris Devred. Result: 11-4,8-11,11-4,11-1.

Starting level for Elliott Morris Devred: 15,558, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joel Preece: 5,283, level confidence: 52%.
Elliott Morris Devred to win as he is currently playing 194% better than Joel Preece.

Elliott Morris Devred won 75% of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliott Morris Devred played 51% better than Joel Preece in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Elliott Morris Devred was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,440 and 15,558 without affecting his level.

As Elliott Morris Devred has played below his allowed range at 8,216, his level reduction is 2.7% before damping. On the assumption that Elliott Morris Devred would normally have been playing at level 11,855 (based on typical behaviour), Joel Preece played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred changes to -1.2% and Joel Preece changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred becomes -0.5% and for Joel Preece becomes +4.3%.

Given Elliott Morris Devred's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Joel Preece's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.2% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred is 0% and for Joel Preece is +3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliott Morris Devred: 84%, Joel Preece: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliott Morris Devred: 60%, Joel Preece: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Elliott Morris Devred: 15,488, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Joel Preece: 5,442, level confidence: 52%.