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Dafydd Parkman v Keeron John (Thu 15 Mar 2018)

Match won by Dafydd Parkman. Result: 11-3,11-1,11-3.

Starting level for Dafydd Parkman: 3,144, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Keeron John: 1,694, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Dafydd Parkman to win as he is currently playing 86% better than Keeron John.

Dafydd Parkman won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dafydd Parkman played 371% better than Keeron John in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dafydd Parkman actually played at a level of 5,011 and Keeron John at a level of 1,063. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 59% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 41% and 41% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dafydd Parkman changes to +37% and Keeron John changes to -41%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dafydd Parkman becomes +12.2% and for Keeron John becomes -16%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Dafydd Parkman is +9.1% and for Keeron John is -12%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Keeron John is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dafydd Parkman: 90%, Keeron John: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dafydd Parkman: 56%, Keeron John: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dafydd Parkman: 3,426, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Keeron John: 1,611, level confidence: 54%.