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Darren Humes v Hari Major (Tue 13 Mar 2018)

Match won by Hari Major. Result: 5-11,8-11,5-11.

Starting level for Darren Humes: 1,882, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Hari Major: 5,094, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Hari Major to win as he is currently playing 171% better than Darren Humes.

Hari Major won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hari Major played 83% better than Darren Humes in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Hari Major was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,990 and 5,094 without affecting his level.

In this case, Hari Major played at level 3,724 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Hari Major would normally have been playing at level 4,020 (based on typical behaviour), Darren Humes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hari Major changes to 0% and Darren Humes changes to +4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hari Major becomes 0% and for Darren Humes becomes +2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'North East Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Hari Major is 0% and for Darren Humes is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hari Major: 86%, Darren Humes: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hari Major: 71%, Darren Humes: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Darren Humes: 1,920, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Hari Major: 5,086, level confidence: 71%.