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Steve Haysom v Keeron John (Tue 13 Mar 2018)

Match won by Keeron John. Result: 5-15,7-15,5-15.

Starting level for Steve Haysom: 890, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Keeron John: 1,625, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Keeron John to win as he is currently playing 83% better than Steve Haysom.

Keeron John won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 165% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keeron John played 165% better than Steve Haysom in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keeron John actually played at a level of 1,957 and Steve Haysom at a level of 739. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keeron John changes to +13% and Steve Haysom changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keeron John becomes +6.6% and for Steve Haysom becomes -8.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Pembrokeshire Pembroke Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Keeron John is +4.9% and for Steve Haysom is -6.4%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Steve Haysom is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keeron John: 88%, Steve Haysom: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keeron John: 73%, Steve Haysom: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Haysom: 840, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Keeron John: 1,703, level confidence: 73%.