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Chris Hill v Liam Eason (Thu 08 Mar 2018)

Match won by Liam Eason. Result: 8-11,3-11,7-11.

Starting level for Chris Hill: 5,383, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Liam Eason: 9,577, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Liam Eason to win as he is currently playing 78% better than Chris Hill.

Liam Eason won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Eason played 83% better than Chris Hill in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Liam Eason actually played at a level of 9,722 and Chris Hill at a level of 5,303. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 1.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Liam Eason changes to +1% and Chris Hill changes to -1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Liam Eason becomes +0.5% and for Chris Hill becomes -0.7%.

Given Liam Eason's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Given Chris Hill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Liam Eason is +0.3% and for Chris Hill is -0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Eason: 89%, Chris Hill: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Eason: 88%, Chris Hill: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Hill: 5,349, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Liam Eason: 9,595, level confidence: 88%.