Mike Harris v Nathan Lake (Sun 11 Mar 2018)
Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 4-11,5-11,6-11.
Starting level for
Mike Harris:
18,707, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
30,112, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing
61% better than Mike Harris.
Nathan Lake won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played
120% better than Mike Harris in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Lake actually played at a level of
35,203 and Mike Harris at a level of
16,001. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to +12% and Mike Harris changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Lake becomes +2.9% and for Mike Harris becomes -3.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent King Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 88%, Mike Harris: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 75%, Mike Harris: 71%.
A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mike Harris:
18,333, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
30,984, level confidence: 75%.