Neil Baker v Nathan Lake (Sat 10 Mar 2018)
Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 5-11,2-11,1-11.
Starting level for
Neil Baker:
6,216, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
29,941, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing
382% better than Neil Baker.
Nathan Lake won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played
313% better than Neil Baker in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nathan Lake was taking it easy by anything up to 41%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,433 and 29,941 without affecting his level.
In this case, Nathan Lake played at level 25,641 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Neil Baker is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 84%, Neil Baker: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 78%, Neil Baker: 85%.
Final level for Neil Baker:
6,216, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
29,941, level confidence: 78%.