Steve London v Nathan Lake (Sat 10 Mar 2018)
Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 4-11,6-11,5-11.
Starting level for
Steve London:
10,429, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
30,183, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing
189% better than Steve London.
Nathan Lake won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played
120% better than Steve London in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nathan Lake was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 17,788 and 30,183 without affecting his level.
In this case, Nathan Lake played at level 23,057 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nathan Lake would normally have been playing at level 23,171 (based on typical behaviour), Steve London played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.5%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to 0% and Steve London changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Lake becomes 0% and for Steve London becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent King Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 88%, Steve London: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 77%, Steve London: 72%.
Final level for Steve London:
10,444, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
30,183, level confidence: 77%.