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Peter Creed v Martin Svec (Thu 08 Mar 2018)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-7,11-2,11-8.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 24,769, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Martin Svec: 18,201, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Martin Svec.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 94% better than Martin Svec in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of 29,582 and Martin Svec at a level of 15,239. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to +16% and Martin Svec changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +3.9% and for Martin Svec becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA North Of Scotland Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 83%, Martin Svec: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 69%, Martin Svec: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 25,728, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Martin Svec: 17,837, level confidence: 78%.