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Vikram Malhotra v Thomas King (Wed 07 Mar 2018)

Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Vikram Malhotra: 30,660, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Thomas King: 5,836, level confidence: 57%.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing 425% better than Thomas King.

Vikram Malhotra won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played 136% better than Thomas King in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Vikram Malhotra was taking it easy by anything up to 44%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,727 and 30,660 without affecting his level.

In this case, Vikram Malhotra played at level 15,413 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Vikram Malhotra would normally have been playing at level 17,269 (based on typical behaviour), Thomas King played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to 0% and Thomas King changes to +5.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes 0% and for Thomas King becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Carter Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 79%, Thomas King: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 53%, Thomas King: 51%.

Final level for Vikram Malhotra: 30,660, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Thomas King: 5,968, level confidence: 51%.