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Chris Simpson v Adrain Waller (Sun 04 Mar 2018)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 9-11,11-2,11-8.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 37,235, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adrain Waller: 33,461, level confidence: 50%.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Adrain Waller.

Chris Simpson won 67% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 34% better than Adrain Waller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Simpson actually played at a level of 40,831 and Adrain Waller at a level of 30,514. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.7% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 6.8% and 6.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to +4.5% and Adrain Waller changes to -6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes +1.4% and for Adrain Waller becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canary Wharf Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 87%, Adrain Waller: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 80%, Adrain Waller: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 37,701, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Adrain Waller: 32,915, level confidence: 65%.