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Tom Williams v Keeron John (Fri 09 Mar 2018)

Match won by Tom Williams. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Tom Williams: 2,226, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Keeron John: 1,661, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Tom Williams to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Keeron John.

Tom Williams won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Williams played 56% better than Keeron John in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Williams actually played at a level of 2,405 and Keeron John at a level of 1,537. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.9% and 6.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Williams changes to +6.9% and Keeron John changes to -6.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Williams becomes +3.6% and for Keeron John becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Tom Williams is +2.7% and for Keeron John is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Williams: 85%, Keeron John: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Williams: 78%, Keeron John: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Williams: 2,283, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Keeron John: 1,625, level confidence: 79%.