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Keeron John v Dylan Jones (Thu 08 Mar 2018)

Match won by Keeron John. Result: 8-11,11-4,11-5,5-11,11-6.

Starting level for Keeron John: 1,674, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Dylan Jones: 1,255, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Keeron John to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Dylan Jones.

Keeron John won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keeron John played 14% better than Dylan Jones in this match.

As Keeron John has played below his allowed range at 1,499, his level reduction is 5.1% before damping. On the assumption that Keeron John would normally have been playing at level 1,630 (based on typical behaviour), Dylan Jones played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keeron John changes to -4.4% and Dylan Jones changes to +5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keeron John becomes -3.1% and for Dylan Jones becomes +3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Keeron John is -2.3% and for Dylan Jones is +2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keeron John: 80%, Dylan Jones: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keeron John: 74%, Dylan Jones: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keeron John: 1,653, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Dylan Jones: 1,287, level confidence: 81%.