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Nick Dyer v Elliott Morris Devred (Thu 08 Mar 2018)

Match won by Elliott Morris Devred. Result: 8-11,5-11,8-11.

Starting level for Nick Dyer: 5,555, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Elliott Morris Devred: 15,626, level confidence: 52%.
Elliott Morris Devred to win as he is currently playing 181% better than Nick Dyer.

Elliott Morris Devred won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliott Morris Devred played 56% better than Nick Dyer in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Elliott Morris Devred was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,854 and 15,626 without affecting his level.

As Elliott Morris Devred has played below his allowed range at 8,772, his level reduction is 0.9% before damping. On the assumption that Elliott Morris Devred would normally have been playing at level 12,139 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Dyer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.6% and 10.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred changes to -0.5% and Nick Dyer changes to +10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred becomes -0.2% and for Nick Dyer becomes +3.8%.

Given Elliott Morris Devred's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Nick Dyer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred is 0% and for Nick Dyer is +2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliott Morris Devred: 72%, Nick Dyer: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliott Morris Devred: 54%, Nick Dyer: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Dyer: 5,700, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Elliott Morris Devred: 15,581, level confidence: 54%.