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Chris Simpson v Nick Wall (Wed 07 Mar 2018)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-5.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 36,763, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Wall: 16,985, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 116% better than Nick Wall.

Chris Simpson won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 65% better than Nick Wall in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Simpson was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,839 and 36,763 without affecting his level.

In this case, Chris Simpson played at level 29,679 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 31,431 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Wall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to 0% and Nick Wall changes to +3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes 0% and for Nick Wall becomes +1.5%.

Given Nick Wall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'York & District Yorkshire Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Chris Simpson is 0% and for Nick Wall is +0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 84%, Nick Wall: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 73%, Nick Wall: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 36,708, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Nick Wall: 17,105, level confidence: 74%.