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Hari Major v Jack Hayes (Tue 06 Mar 2018)

Match won by Jack Hayes. Result: 7-11,8-11,16-14,11-5,9-11.

Starting level for Hari Major: 5,262, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jack Hayes: 3,675, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Hari Major to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Jack Hayes.

Jack Hayes won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Hayes played 8% better than Hari Major in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Hayes actually played at a level of 4,570 and Hari Major at a level of 4,232. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Hayes changes to +18% and Hari Major changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Hayes becomes +6.3% and for Hari Major becomes -6.4%.

Given Hari Major's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.1% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'North East Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Jack Hayes is +4.8% and for Hari Major is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Hayes: 90%, Hari Major: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Hayes: 72%, Hari Major: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hari Major: 5,021, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Jack Hayes: 3,844, level confidence: 72%.