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Jack Turney v Joel Makin (Mon 05 Mar 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 2-11,1-11,4-11.

Starting level for Jack Turney: 10,964, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 36,355, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 232% better than Jack Turney.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 371% better than Jack Turney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of 43,349 and Jack Turney at a level of 9,195. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.1% and 10.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +9.9% and Jack Turney changes to -10.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +2.5% and for Jack Turney becomes -3.2%.

Given Joel Makin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 64% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jack Turney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Joel Makin is +1.1% and for Jack Turney is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 90%, Jack Turney: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 76%, Jack Turney: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jack Turney: 10,737, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 36,709, level confidence: 76%.