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Raphael Kandra v Baptiste Masotti (Thu 01 Mar 2018)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-6,5-11,6-11,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 36,130, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 26,327, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Baptiste Masotti.

Raphael Kandra won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 8% better than Baptiste Masotti in this match.

As Raphael Kandra has played below his allowed range at 31,055, his level reduction is 9.1% before damping. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 34,994 (based on typical behaviour), Baptiste Masotti played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.8% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to -7.5% and Baptiste Masotti changes to +9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes -2% and for Baptiste Masotti becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montreal Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 85%, Baptiste Masotti: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 76%, Baptiste Masotti: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 35,353, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 26,979, level confidence: 75%.