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Nour El Tayeb v Tesni Murphy (Sun 25 Feb 2018)

Match won by Nour El Tayeb. Result: 11-7,7-11,6-11,14-12,11-4.

Starting level for Nour El Tayeb: 12,421, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 9,701, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Nour El Tayeb to win as she is currently playing 28% better than Tesni Murphy.

Nour El Tayeb won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nour El Tayeb played 10% better than Tesni Murphy in this match.

As Nour El Tayeb has played below her allowed range at 11,269, her level reduction is 5.9% before damping. On the assumption that Nour El Tayeb would normally have been playing at level 12,173 (based on typical behaviour), Tesni Murphy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.2% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nour El Tayeb changes to -5.2% and Tesni Murphy changes to +5.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nour El Tayeb becomes -1.9% and for Tesni Murphy becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Windy City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nour El Tayeb: 80%, Tesni Murphy: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nour El Tayeb: 74%, Tesni Murphy: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nour El Tayeb: 12,111, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Tesni Murphy: 9,887, level confidence: 80%.