Cameron Pilley v Nick Matthew (Sun 25 Feb 2018)
Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 11-8,10-12,11-8,11-7.
Starting level for
Cameron Pilley:
41,957, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nick Matthew:
55,049, level confidence: 66%.
Nick Matthew to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Cameron Pilley.
Cameron Pilley won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played
24% better than Nick Matthew in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Pilley actually played at a level of
53,580 and Nick Matthew at a level of
43,108. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley changes to +22% and Nick Matthew changes to -24%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley becomes +4.5% and for Nick Matthew becomes -4.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Windy City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 84%, Nick Matthew: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 66%, Nick Matthew: 64%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Cameron Pilley:
43,690, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Nick Matthew:
52,708, level confidence: 64%.