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Aditya Jagtap v Eric Galvez (Fri 23 Feb 2018)

Match won by Aditya Jagtap. Result: 12-10,5-11,9-11,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Aditya Jagtap: 20,789, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Eric Galvez: 24,686, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Eric Galvez to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Aditya Jagtap.

Aditya Jagtap won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Aditya Jagtap played 8% better than Eric Galvez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Aditya Jagtap actually played at a level of 23,546 and Eric Galvez at a level of 21,795. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Aditya Jagtap changes to +12% and Eric Galvez changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Aditya Jagtap becomes +3.2% and for Eric Galvez becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Mount Royal University Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Aditya Jagtap: 84%, Eric Galvez: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Aditya Jagtap: 74%, Eric Galvez: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Aditya Jagtap: 21,397, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Eric Galvez: 23,947, level confidence: 74%.