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Alan Clyne v Nathan Lake (Fri 23 Feb 2018)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 11-13,11-4,11-7,13-11.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 35,148, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nathan Lake: 30,457, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Nathan Lake.

Alan Clyne won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 27% better than Nathan Lake in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Clyne actually played at a level of 36,890 and Nathan Lake at a level of 29,019. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to +3.8% and Nathan Lake changes to -4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes +1.3% and for Nathan Lake becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Windy City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 92%, Nathan Lake: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 88%, Nathan Lake: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 35,457, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Nathan Lake: 30,049, level confidence: 80%.