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Nathan Lake v Omar Abdel Meguid (Thu 22 Feb 2018)

Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 11-8,4-11,13-11,14-12.

Starting level for Nathan Lake: 29,268, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Omar Abdel Meguid: 34,318, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Omar Abdel Meguid to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Nathan Lake.

Nathan Lake won 75% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played 17% better than Omar Abdel Meguid in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Lake actually played at a level of 34,244 and Omar Abdel Meguid at a level of 29,331. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to +16% and Omar Abdel Meguid changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Lake becomes +3.6% and for Omar Abdel Meguid becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Windy City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 82%, Omar Abdel Meguid: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 70%, Omar Abdel Meguid: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nathan Lake: 30,229, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Omar Abdel Meguid: 33,202, level confidence: 72%.