Chris Simpson v Christopher Binnie (Thu 22 Feb 2018)
Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-8.
Starting level for
Chris Simpson:
36,710, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Christopher Binnie:
26,048, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing
41% better than Christopher Binnie.
Chris Simpson won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played
65% better than Christopher Binnie in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Simpson actually played at a level of
39,721 and Christopher Binnie at a level of
24,073. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.2% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.9% and 6.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to +6.9% and Christopher Binnie changes to -6.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes +1.9% and for Christopher Binnie becomes -1.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Windy City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 83%, Christopher Binnie: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 77%, Christopher Binnie: 80%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Chris Simpson:
37,159, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Christopher Binnie:
25,661, level confidence: 80%.