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Adrian Waller v Chris Fuller (Thu 22 Feb 2018)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-9,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Adrian Waller: 35,858, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Fuller: 17,756, level confidence: 53%.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 102% better than Chris Fuller.

Adrian Waller won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 56% better than Chris Fuller in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Adrian Waller was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 27,358 and 35,858 without affecting his level.

In this case, Adrian Waller played at level 29,496 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Adrian Waller would normally have been playing at level 31,321 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Fuller played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to 0% and Chris Fuller changes to +4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes 0% and for Chris Fuller becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Windy City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 84%, Chris Fuller: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 74%, Chris Fuller: 64%.

Final level for Adrian Waller: 35,858, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Chris Fuller: 18,042, level confidence: 64%.