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Elliott Morris Devred v Ben Skidmore (Tue 27 Feb 2018)

Match won by Elliott Morris Devred. Result: 13-11,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Elliott Morris Devred: 15,644, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Skidmore: 3,985, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Elliott Morris Devred to win as he is currently playing 293% better than Ben Skidmore.

Elliott Morris Devred won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliott Morris Devred played 58% better than Ben Skidmore in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Elliott Morris Devred was taking it easy by anything up to 34%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,204 and 15,644 without affecting his level.

In this case, Elliott Morris Devred played at level 8,074 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Elliott Morris Devred would normally have been playing at level 10,371 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Skidmore played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 28%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred changes to 0% and Ben Skidmore changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred becomes 0% and for Ben Skidmore becomes +4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred is 0% and for Ben Skidmore is +3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliott Morris Devred: 85%, Ben Skidmore: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliott Morris Devred: 54%, Ben Skidmore: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Elliott Morris Devred: 15,621, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Ben Skidmore: 4,110, level confidence: 59%.