Tim Vail v Nathan Lake (Wed 28 Feb 2018)
Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 11-13,10-12,11-3,7-11.
Starting level for
Tim Vail:
21,049, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
29,577, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing
41% better than Tim Vail.
Nathan Lake won 75% of the games and 50% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played
17% better than Tim Vail in this match.
As Nathan Lake has played below his allowed range at 25,881, his level reduction is 5.3% before damping. On the assumption that Nathan Lake would normally have been playing at level 28,522 (based on typical behaviour), Tim Vail played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.7%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 6.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to -3.7% and Tim Vail changes to +6.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Lake becomes -1.4% and for Tim Vail becomes +2%.
Given Nathan Lake's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 55% has been applied to his level change.
Given Tim Vail's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Nathan Lake is -0.7% and for Tim Vail is +1.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 90%, Tim Vail: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 82%, Tim Vail: 75%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tim Vail:
21,242, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
29,339, level confidence: 82%.