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Joel Makin v Stuart Macgregor (Mon 26 Feb 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 16-14,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 37,026, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 16,791, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 121% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 42% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joel Makin was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,674 and 37,026 without affecting his level.

As Joel Makin has played below his allowed range at 24,749, his level reduction is 3.7% before damping. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 31,465 (based on typical behaviour), Stuart Macgregor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 9.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to -2.5% and Stuart Macgregor changes to +7.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes -1% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes +2.3%.

Given Joel Makin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 64% has been applied to his level change.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Joel Makin is -0.4% and for Stuart Macgregor is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 78%, Stuart Macgregor: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 63%, Stuart Macgregor: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 36,809, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 16,983, level confidence: 72%.