Grace Gear v Elliott Morris Devred (Thu 22 Feb 2018)
Match won by Elliott Morris Devred. Result: 2-11,8-11,3-11.
Starting level for
Grace Gear:
5,349, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Elliott Morris Devred:
15,681, level confidence: 62%.
Elliott Morris Devred to win as he is currently playing
193% better than Grace Gear.
Elliott Morris Devred won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliott Morris Devred played
154% better than Grace Gear in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Elliott Morris Devred was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,544 and 15,681 without affecting his level.
In this case, Elliott Morris Devred played at level 13,578 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Grace Gear is considered to have not played better than expected and her level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliott Morris Devred: 79%, Grace Gear: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliott Morris Devred: 74%, Grace Gear: 82%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Grace Gear:
5,341, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Elliott Morris Devred:
15,658, level confidence: 74%.