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Mike Dickens v Tej Saran Singh (Thu 22 Feb 2018)

Match won by Tej Saran Singh. Result: 5-11,11-8,11-7,8-11,10-12.

Starting level for Mike Dickens: 5,389, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tej Saran Singh: 6,267, level confidence: 57%.
Tej Saran Singh to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Mike Dickens.

Tej Saran Singh won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tej Saran Singh played 10% better than Mike Dickens in this match.

As Tej Saran Singh has played below his allowed range at 6,046, his level reduction is 2.3% before damping. On the assumption that Tej Saran Singh would normally have been playing at level 6,229 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Dickens played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tej Saran Singh changes to -2.1% and Mike Dickens changes to +1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tej Saran Singh becomes -1.2% and for Mike Dickens becomes +1.1%.

Given Tej Saran Singh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.2% has been applied to his level change.

Given Mike Dickens's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.7% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Tej Saran Singh is -0.8% and for Mike Dickens is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tej Saran Singh: 76%, Mike Dickens: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tej Saran Singh: 73%, Mike Dickens: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Dickens: 5,423, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Tej Saran Singh: 6,206, level confidence: 73%.