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Will Salter v Kyle Thompson (Wed 21 Feb 2018)

Match won by Will Salter. Result: 15-10,12-15,15-11,15-12.

Starting level for Will Salter: 1,893, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Kyle Thompson: 1,634, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Will Salter to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Kyle Thompson.

Will Salter won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will Salter played 23% better than Kyle Thompson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Will Salter actually played at a level of 1,950 and Kyle Thompson at a level of 1,586. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will Salter changes to +2.8% and Kyle Thompson changes to -2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will Salter becomes +2.2% and for Kyle Thompson becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Gwent Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Will Salter is +1.6% and for Kyle Thompson is -1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will Salter: 77%, Kyle Thompson: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will Salter: 74%, Kyle Thompson: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Will Salter: 1,921, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Kyle Thompson: 1,612, level confidence: 88%.