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Keeron John v Andrew Barcoe (Mon 19 Feb 2018)

Match won by Keeron John. Result: 15-10,15-9,12-15,15-14.

Starting level for Keeron John: 1,770, level confidence: 36%.
Starting level for Andrew Barcoe: 1,052, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Keeron John to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Andrew Barcoe.

Keeron John won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keeron John played 23% better than Andrew Barcoe in this match.

As Keeron John has played below his allowed range at 1,388, his level reduction is 7.3% before damping. On the assumption that Keeron John would normally have been playing at level 1,639 (based on typical behaviour), Andrew Barcoe played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 9.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keeron John changes to -5.6% and Andrew Barcoe changes to +3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keeron John becomes -3.5% and for Andrew Barcoe becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Pembrokeshire Pembroke Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Keeron John is -2.6% and for Andrew Barcoe is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keeron John: 60%, Andrew Barcoe: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keeron John: 51%, Andrew Barcoe: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keeron John: 1,723, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Andrew Barcoe: 1,077, level confidence: 80%.