Raphael Kandra v Kai Wetzstein (Fri 16 Feb 2018)
Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-2,11-1,11-2.
Starting level for
Raphael Kandra:
34,258, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Kai Wetzstein:
8,881, level confidence: 65%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing
286% better than Kai Wetzstein.
Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 87% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played
560% better than Kai Wetzstein in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of
44,811 and Kai Wetzstein at a level of
6,790. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +13% and Kai Wetzstein changes to -15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +3% and for Kai Wetzstein becomes -4.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior German Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 86%, Kai Wetzstein: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 66%, Kai Wetzstein: 62%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Raphael Kandra:
35,231, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Kai Wetzstein:
8,495, level confidence: 62%.