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Raphael Kandra v Jan Siegle (Fri 16 Feb 2018)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-1,11-7,11-3.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 34,241, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jan Siegle: 9,069, level confidence: 65%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 278% better than Jan Siegle.

Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 200% better than Jan Siegle in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raphael Kandra was taking it easy by anything up to 32%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,683 and 34,241 without affecting his level.

In this case, Raphael Kandra played at level 27,207 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Jan Siegle is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 84%, Jan Siegle: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 75%, Jan Siegle: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 34,190, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Jan Siegle: 9,055, level confidence: 72%.