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Peter Creed v Lewis Poole (Thu 15 Feb 2018)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 24,611, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Lewis Poole: 7,449, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 230% better than Lewis Poole.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 83% better than Lewis Poole in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Creed was taking it easy by anything up to 28%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,877 and 24,611 without affecting his level.

In this case, Peter Creed played at level 15,593 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Peter Creed would normally have been playing at level 17,803 (based on typical behaviour), Lewis Poole played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to 0% and Lewis Poole changes to +5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes 0% and for Lewis Poole becomes +2.2%.

Given Lewis Poole's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Peter Creed is 0% and for Lewis Poole is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 80%, Lewis Poole: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 59%, Lewis Poole: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 24,574, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Lewis Poole: 7,551, level confidence: 70%.