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Tesni Murphy v Laura Massaro (Sat 17 Feb 2018)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-3,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 9,006, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Laura Massaro: 10,602, level confidence: 60%.
Laura Massaro to win as she is currently playing 18% better than Tesni Murphy.

Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 65% better than Laura Massaro in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tesni Murphy actually played at a level of 12,552 and Laura Massaro at a level of 7,607. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to +25% and Laura Massaro changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes +6.6% and for Laura Massaro becomes -8.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior British National Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tesni Murphy is limited to +5.1% and Laura Massaro is limited to -4.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 94%, Laura Massaro: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 67%, Laura Massaro: 56%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tesni Murphy: 9,431, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Laura Massaro: 10,077, level confidence: 56%.