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Chris Simpson v Greg Lobban (Fri 16 Feb 2018)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-8,11-1,11-6.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 34,487, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 37,148, level confidence: 69%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Chris Simpson.

Chris Simpson won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 120% better than Greg Lobban in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Simpson actually played at a level of 53,089 and Greg Lobban at a level of 24,131. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 54% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to +46% and Greg Lobban changes to -52%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes +8.4% and for Greg Lobban becomes -9.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior British National Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Chris Simpson is limited to +5.5% and Greg Lobban is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 87%, Greg Lobban: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 57%, Greg Lobban: 54%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 36,359, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 35,713, level confidence: 54%.