Tesni Murphy v Alison Thomson (Thu 15 Feb 2018)
Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-3,11-7,11-6.
Starting level for
Tesni Murphy:
8,978, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Alison Thomson:
4,509, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing
99% better than Alison Thomson.
Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played
106% better than Alison Thomson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tesni Murphy actually played at a level of
9,137 and Alison Thomson at a level of
4,430. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 1.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to +1.2% and Alison Thomson changes to -1.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes +0.6% and for Alison Thomson becomes -0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior British National Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 91%, Alison Thomson: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 90%, Alison Thomson: 89%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tesni Murphy:
8,947, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Alison Thomson:
4,508, level confidence: 89%.