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Vikram Malhotra v Mike McCue (Fri 09 Feb 2018)

Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-4,11-0,11-4.

Starting level for Vikram Malhotra: 28,530, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Mike McCue: 21,200, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Mike McCue.

Vikram Malhotra won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played 313% better than Mike McCue in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Vikram Malhotra actually played at a level of 49,949 and Mike McCue at a level of 12,109. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 75% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 62% and 62% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to +62% and Mike McCue changes to -51%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes +11% and for Mike McCue becomes -10%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Atlanta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Vikram Malhotra is limited to +5.8% and Mike McCue is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 80%, Mike McCue: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 46%, Mike McCue: 49%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Vikram Malhotra: 30,159, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Mike McCue: 20,166, level confidence: 49%.