Vikram Malhotra v Syed Hamzah Shah Bukhari (Thu 08 Feb 2018)
Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 8-11,11-5,11-4,11-6.
Starting level for
Vikram Malhotra:
28,768, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for
Syed Hamzah Shah Bukhari:
18,995, level confidence: 66%.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing
51% better than Syed Hamzah Shah Bukhari.
Vikram Malhotra won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played
36% better than Syed Hamzah Shah Bukhari in this match.
As Vikram Malhotra has played below his allowed range at 25,872, his level reduction is 0.3% before damping. On the assumption that Vikram Malhotra would normally have been playing at level 27,323 (based on typical behaviour), Syed Hamzah Shah Bukhari played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to 0% and Syed Hamzah Shah Bukhari changes to +1.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes -0.1% and for Syed Hamzah Shah Bukhari becomes +0.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Atlanta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 68%, Syed Hamzah Shah Bukhari: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 65%, Syed Hamzah Shah Bukhari: 77%.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra:
28,739, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Syed Hamzah Shah Bukhari:
19,133, level confidence: 77%.