Srikar Mummidi v Jordan Williams (Fri 16 Feb 2018)
Match won by Srikar Mummidi. Result: 11-3,8-11,11-1,11-4.
Starting level for
Srikar Mummidi:
7,155, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for
Jordan Williams:
4,648, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Srikar Mummidi to win as he is currently playing
54% better than Jordan Williams.
Srikar Mummidi won 75% of the games and 68% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 116% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Srikar Mummidi played
55% better than Jordan Williams in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Srikar Mummidi actually played at a level of
7,179 and Jordan Williams at a level of
4,633. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.3% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi changes to 0% and Jordan Williams changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi becomes +0.1% and for Jordan Williams becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Squad Selection Weekend' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Srikar Mummidi: 68%, Jordan Williams: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Srikar Mummidi: 68%, Jordan Williams: 88%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Srikar Mummidi:
7,155, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Jordan Williams:
4,637, level confidence: 88%.