Jamie Ttophi v Liam Eason (Thu 15 Feb 2018)
Match won by Liam Eason. Result: 11-8,12-14,9-11,7-11.
Starting level for
Jamie Ttophi:
8,368, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Liam Eason:
9,505, level confidence: 58%.
Liam Eason to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Jamie Ttophi.
Liam Eason won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Eason played
21% better than Jamie Ttophi in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Liam Eason actually played at a level of
9,809 and Jamie Ttophi at a level of
8,108. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Liam Eason changes to +3% and Jamie Ttophi changes to -2.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Liam Eason becomes +1.5% and for Jamie Ttophi becomes -1.3%.
Given Liam Eason's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.
Given Jamie Ttophi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Liam Eason is +1% and for Jamie Ttophi is -0.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Eason: 76%, Jamie Ttophi: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Eason: 74%, Jamie Ttophi: 79%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Jamie Ttophi:
8,281, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Liam Eason:
9,583, level confidence: 74%.